It has been a while since Microsoft have published something interesting. Two days ago, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer introduced the “Surface”. Let’s talk about it.
But first, we shall take a look at the past ten years or so. In 2001, Microsoft released Windows XP. I still remember how excited I was, after all the disappointment with Windows ME. It was much more stable than previous releases and it had style. It’s no wonder that XP is still being used by more than 30% of all installed user bases in January 2012. Just think about this: 30% of all the computers used today run an operating system, that is more than a decade old. And people in the industry know that a decade in IT is like the lifetime of fridges since their invention. After that, something called Windows Vista came out, but somehow you get that feeling of “I don’t want to talk about it” when people mention it. Suffice it to say, it was a catastrophe. It was not stable, it was released too soon and since the development of Windows 7 was already under way, I guess not even the guys at Microsoft knew why they were offering it. For those of you who like to judge things by numbers, here you go: Since it’s release in January 2007, Windows Vista reached a climax of usage of 18,6 % of total user bases. Even Windows 2000 still had 20% in May 2005. As fast as Vista appeared, it faded away again, as Windows 7 was released in October 2009. Today, a resounding 3,9 % still use Vista (guess some people never learn), that is less than the total user base of Linux with 4,9 %.
Now we have to praise Microsoft for Windows 7 – it’s quite stable, it has style and even though some gadgets are a copy of Mac OS X, it’s fun to use. The only bad thing I have to say is the pricing, since you can’t get a copy of Windows 7 Home Premium for less than about 60 euros. Also, people that don’t know much about software and IT don’t really know which version to go with. It’s all a bit complicated with Microsoft.
Another success for Microsoft was the introduction of the Xbox. Even today, it is one of the big three consoles next to Sony’s Playstation and Nintendo’s Wii in gaming.
In the mean time, three other IT companies had a huge impact on the IT industry and it’s safe to say that these three formed the IT consumer landscape as it is today. Self-evidently I am talking about Apple, Google and Samsung.
Let’s talk about Apple first. The fruit company was lead by CEO Steve Jobs in the last 14 years until his death last year and in that time Apple rose to become the most valuable company in the world by share value. So why is that?
Apple introduced two new devices which revolutionized the IT industry: the iPhone and the iPad. The iPhone gave the word smartphone a whole new meaning, it practically redefined it. At the time the iPhone was released in June 2007, it was by far the most advanced mobile phone on the market, quite simply two years ahead of anything else. When Apple’s competitors watched the presentation of the iPhone by Steve Jobs, something he was renowned for, one could easily imagine them thinking “shit, we’ve got to get to work”.
What followed was the introduction of touch-interface mobile phones that dominate today’s mobile phone segment. Samsung, LG and HTC were among the first to introduce similar devices and today, in 2012, Samsung is the number one selling mobile phone company. In my opinion, this only happened for two reasons: the first being that Samsung’s phones can compete with Apple’s iPhone and are cheaper, and secondly because of Google.
Google was probably gobsmacked by Apple and the iPhone, so they decided to work on an operating system for mobile devices of their own. Android is the result. And even though it was not able to become the number one mobile operating system, it came fairly close and who knows what the future holds for it.
So while Samsung, HTC, Motorola and alike profited next to Apple from the revolutionized mobile phone market, Microsoft and Nokia stayed behind. They were unable to offer any products that could catch up and compete with the new generation of smartphones.
What made Microsoft fall down even more was the introduction of the iPad. Apple not only revolutionized the phone, but the tablet computer industry as well. Today, the iPad is THE tablet computer market, with over 60% market share.
Due to the success of the iPhone and the iPad, a lot of customers became interested in Macs. Revenues for Apple in the Mac and MacBook segment also increased strongly. With the new enhancements in the next installment of Mac OS X, Mountain Lion, which will be released next month, as well as a new top-notch MacBook Pro with a display that no other product can match, Apple certainly have raised the bar for the competitors for the next few months.
Now die-hard Microsoft fans might say, “well, Microsoft is not a mobile phone company”. But fact is that Microsoft was deeply asleep while the others revolutionized the IT product market. Let’s take a look at Apple and Microsoft when it comes down to share value in the last 10 years:
So now, Microsoft brought out it’s own tablet computer, called “Surface”. It will come in two versions, one powered by the Nvidia Tegra CPU and the other, the Surface Pro, will have a quad-core Intel Core i5 processor. You can watch the keynote on YouTube, if you want to know more about it:
What I found particularly interesting about the keynote was the fact that you immediately notice the way the keynote presentation is held. It instantly reminds me of Apple’s keynotes, only lacking some experience and quality here and there.
I also found some words, like “innovation” to be sort of ironic coming from Steve Ballmer, since he was the guy that laughed at the iPad and now he is the one, presenting Microsoft’s own version of a tablet computer. It will be interesting to see if the market will accept a product from Microsoft. With a lot of criticism coming the way of Windows 8, as it is neither an OS made completely for the PC at home (which does not have a touch screen interface) nor for a tablet computer, Microsoft might need all the success it can get at this point.
We will simply have to wait and see if Windows 8, a hybrid operating system combining tablet computers and PCs, will be a success and if the Surface will have any chance on the tablet computer market. The non-existing app store for the Surface will certainly be a problem, but hardware-wise it should be able to compete with other products.
If, however, neither Windows 8 nor the Surface will be a success, then Microsoft will be in some deep trouble, as development and production costs will most probably not have been met. It might then be the beginning of the end of Steve Ballmer at Microsoft…
The Germafrican 